in 2007,the second half of the year Chinese mechanical profession development analysis

Tuesday, April 29, 2008 in mining news

Because the first half of the year macro economic grows quickly, the energy conservation falls consumes the target not to achieve anticipated, simultaneously in the fluidity is surplus and under the property price large rise's background, estimated that in the second half of the year the mechanical profession speed-up slightly has recedes, but still maintained 30% about the top digit, the primary cause has the following several points:

 First, in the second half of the year the investment in the fixed assets continues faced with to recede the pressure.


two are the export also faces recedes the pressure, the primary cause is still has the Renminbi revaluation, the interest on futures and the American interest on futures pressure.

three are the cardinal number reasons, after before in 2006 the mechanical profession speed-up is, low high, because the second half of the year cardinal number is high, thus constitutes certain pressure in the second half of the year to 2007.

four are the seasonal factor, generally 7~ September is the profession relative off season, the speed-up recedes belongs to the normal phenomenon. therefore, the professional estimated that this year the mechanical profession speed-up recedes hopefully to 30% about, the annual speed-up still had the possibility to be higher than 2006.

 Raw material rise in price pressure still might withstand

in 2007 the first half of the year, upstream products and so on steel price, non-ferrous metal, water, electricity raise the price the successive waves to launch, specially the steel price's rise is affecting the mechanical manufacturer heart, but the author thought that this raw material rise in price the pressure still in the scope which might withstand, the primary cause had the following two aspects:

The steel price rise scope also is quite at the same time temperate, likely in 2007 in the first quarter steel price increase scope also basic control in 7%, on the other hand, generally speaking the mechanical complete machine product directly uses the steel quantity to be quite few, is correspondingly insensitive to the steel price change. At the same time, the Renminbi revaluation, the technology advancement, the production efficiency promotion and the product raise the price and so on measures, basic can make up the steel price rise pressure. The professional pointed out that the part with the steel quantity is quite big, and competes a more intense sub-profession, like the container manufacturing industry will withstand some pressures.
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